By Rick Tobin
The housing market in many regions across the nation can be best described as “sideways” where home prices remain relatively stable and listing inventory is still well below historical averages.
While housing trends are more localized and can vary from a stronger sellers’ market to a better buyers’ market depending on the region, we’re seeing sideways types of stable home price trends in many regions that fluctuate within a more narrow price range swing. It’s not an obvious appreciating or booming price trend or a downward, busting, or depreciating price movement.
Whether your local housing market region has a balanced market supply of buyers and sellers or many more sellers than buyers, home listing prices aren’t drastically falling on a large scale as of yet.
For any type of product or service, an equalized number of buyers and sellers is usually more positive than negative to at least keep the prices relatively stable or flat.
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Our Unusual Sideways Housing Market
I describe average price trends in most regions as “flat” in spite of so many historic negative housing and economic trends that would’ve acted like a figurative anchor in previous housing cycles and pulled home values back down. If so, it would’ve created more “underwater” properties where the mortgage debt exceeded the current home market value.
Let’s take a closer look at sideways types of housing market characteristics:
Flat home prices: A more typical home price trend for a sideways housing market is when home prices remain flat or stagnant, partly since the number of buyers and sellers is more balanced. However, home prices are either flat or slowly appreciating in spite of the record imbalance of sellers vs. buyers.
An inverted housing market: We’re not seeing home prices crashing like they did during the 2008 to 2012 era at this point in today’s housing cycle. Nationally, there were an estimated 1.99 million sellers competing for approximately 1.48 million buyers, as per Fortune and Redfin in Q1 of 2026.
The whopping number of an all-time record 630,000 more home sellers than buyers should’ve created a much stronger buyer’s market as home listing price averages should’ve trended downward. However, we’re still not seeing that happen on a large scale in more regions.
Doubling Home Listing Numbers: You’ve probably noticed the national home listing supply numbers moving up over the past year from a low near one million to almost two million today.
What’s a bit confusing is that many of these national home listing supply numbers just focus on older existing-homes for sale, while not including the near record number of new builder homes for sale as well.
Average new U.S. home prices from motivated builders continue to remain priced below older existing homes for sale. This price trend differential is highly unusual because buyers used to willingly pay an average of 15% higher for new homes due to the obvious benefits of brand new appliances, roof, windows, plumbing features, and lengthy home warranty plans.
After combining the older and brand new home listings, this number gets closer to two million. However, it’s still about half as large as the four million home listings for sale back near the previous housing bubble peak in 2007.
As I’ve shared for many years, the number of distressed (forbearance, loan modifications, pre-foreclosures, etc.) and vacant “shadow inventory” supply of homes absolutely dwarfs the national home listing inventory supply by a significant number.
After this huge number of distressed properties, which may have delinquent mortgages that haven’t been paid for several years, later turns into foreclosures and future listings, then median home prices are likely to remain stagnant or start falling.
A positive population trend that I’ve shared before is that there are now 40 million people living here in the U.S. today than there were back in 2007 when national home listing inventories peaked near 4 million homes for sale. However, how many of these additional 40 million people living in the U.S. can qualify to purchase a home or lease a property?
Older Buyers and Sellers, Fewer Families
Adults between the ages of 61 and 79 continue to dominate the U.S. housing market and represent the largest group of home buyers and sellers, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ newly released 2026 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report.
Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) accounted for 42% of all U.S. home buyers and 55% of home sellers, according to this NAR report. First-time home buyers fell to their lowest share on the NAR’s records that date back to 1981, comprising just 21% of all home buyers.
The average first-time U.S. homebuyer age in 2025 was 40 years of age. Sadly, the average first-time homebuyer age in California last year was closer to an all-time record high of 49. If a California buyer takes out a 30-year mortgage and doesn’t pay any extra principal payments, then they will be 79 years of age by the time their home is free-and-clear with no debt.
In 2025, there were more home buyers across the nation over the age of 70 than under the age of 35. Last year, the average U.S. home seller was 64 years of age.
Both marital and fertility trends are near historic lows as fewer people are truly in love or financially secure enough to get married and have children. Raising children from birth until just the age of 18 in today’s America can cost an average of $300,000, as per CBS News.
The number #1 cause of divorce these days is not related to a spouse being unfaithful. No, it’s related more to financial pressures. Ironically, the top 2 reasons for financial insolvency these days are tied to unpaid medical bills and divorce.
Unhappy relationships and feelings of disconnection among the younger generations will eventually be a major factor causing declining future single-family home sales, especially if they don’t have any loving family members living with them.
Mortgage Rates and Record Debt
Those new record low 3% mortgage rates are long gone. Yet, today’s rates that are swinging from the low-to-high 6% rate range for many applicants are still well below the 50-year historical average for 30-year fixed mortgage rates that are closer to 7.76%.
A major difference today for many people is the fact that our dollar’s purchase power keeps falling at a rapid pace. This is painfully obvious for many of us who go grocery shopping.
A prime example of how bad food prices have gotten is the fact that a recent LendingTree survey found that nearly one-in-three Americans are using Buy Now, Pay Later type of costly installment plan services to buy groceries.
The average new car payment is nearly $775 per month, while some new truck payments can be in the $2,000 to $3,000 per month range. Gas prices here in California are more likely to be above $6 per gallon than below that figure. Car insurance and maintenance costs keep rising as well. As a result, it may cost a car owner an average of closer to $1,500 per month (car payment, gas, insurance, maintenance, etc.) or more to keep driving their car.
Total unpaid credit card debt reached a new record high in Q1 2026 at nearly $1.25 trillion dollars. With APRs (Annual Percentage Rate) for many rates and fees somewhere within the 28% to 40% APR range, it’s becoming incredibly challenging to pay off consumer debt.
Buying and Selling Timing Options
It’s been said that the three most important factors for real estate are “location, location, and location.” While this may be true for prime coastal beachfront properties in Southern California like those found in Huntington Harbour, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach, I would add market timing as the fourth most important factor.
How often do we look back and clearly see that the housing market was peaking or busting? With 20/20 hindsight today, it’s much easier to see the positive or negative housing trends in the past.
What’s more important is to pay close attention to the positive or negative trends in your housing market regions of interest today!
If this perceived flat or stagnant housing market suddenly turns into a downward home price cycle, then you as a buyer will have less competition to purchase discounted properties that interest you.
For sellers in a declining housing market with a record imbalance of sellers-to-buyers, you will need to seriously consider reducing your home listing prices instead of waiting and holding out for all-time record price highs for your neighborhood.
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Please closely watch the average Days on Market (DOM) for your region to have a better understanding of home value trends. An increasingly longer number of active days for sale is more likely to lead to future home price drops rather than price hikes.
For savvy real estate investors who closely follow Realty411, if you’re the only active investor in your region interested in a distressed property that may or may not be currently listed for sale, you might boost your nest egg by purchasing well below market value and holding on to it for the long run.
As many of us know, real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation. Our dollar will continue to keep weakening and inflation will keep rising each year more often than not. As a result, property values may keep rising as well in spite of a potentially weakening economy.
Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California.
Rick provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California.
Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options, join his investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors, and follow his new So-Cal Real Estate TV channel for more details.
Rick Tobin
Realloans (Real Estate Loans)
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Here are some of my articles: The Fall of 2025 and Rise of New Opportunities, The Intersection of Declining Home Sales and Creative Marketing, Are Lower Rates on the Horizon?, Weather Extremes, Homes, and Insurance Risks, The California Gold Rush Boom, and Are You Focused on Commercial Real Estate?
Please join my So-Cal Real Estate Investors group that meets at Canyon Lake Golf & Country Club, Shoreline Yacht Club in Long Beach, and online: So-Cal Real Estate Investors.
