realty411

By Rick Tobin

“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.” – Henry Ford

The only constant in life is change. Today’s sluggish housing market offers us all both chaos and opportunity, whether you are an investor, first-time home buyer, seller, real estate agent, or mortgage broker.

There’s an old saying that is very true: Everything that you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear. For many people, they may read negative data trends, freeze up, and refuse to make any changes to their marketing strategies as a seller, buyer, or real estate or financial professional.

The key is to review as many positive, neutral, and negative data trends, while staying focused on the potential opportunities and solutions rather than getting seemingly hypnotized or frozen by the temporary obstacles standing in your way.

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Declining Housing Sales Turnover Rate

Today’s U.S. housing market has the lowest sales turnover rate in at least 30 years, as per sources like Redfin and The Kobeissi Letter. Only 28 homes out of every 1,000 homes, or 2.8%, changed hands by way of sales in the first nine months of 2025.

The housing market is frozen with a much lower sales volume here in 2025, partly due to a mortgage rate lock-in effect, where nearly 70% of all homeowners currently hold mortgages with rates near 5% or below. I’ve written about the “lock-in effect” over the past few years in articles like this one that was published in July 2023: The Lock-In Effect and Keys to Success.

Even though the average 30-year fixed rate fell to a one-year low near the low 6% rate range by the end of October 2025, median home prices in many U.S. regions are near or at all-time record highs. As a result, fewer home buyers can afford to purchase their dream home because they can’t afford the mortgage payment along with other consumer debts.

Pending Home Sales Aren’t Improving

Pending home sales, which track the number of home sales contracts signed, didn’t change much in September 2025 as compared with the previous month of August.

This is now the third year in a row that pending home sales have remained near record lows as per data shared by the National Association of Realtors, dating back to July 2010.

There really hasn’t been any significant improvement over the past three years, as shared via YCharts below and in data compiled by Wolf Street in their article here: Home Sales Have Not Improved at All Despite the Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Year

Pending home sales compared to the Septembers in prior years:
● 2024: -0.9%
● 2023: +1.2%
● 2022: -8.3%
● 2021: -35.1%
● 2020: -41.1%
● 2019: -30.7%
Source: WolfStreet.com

In the West, pending homes sales fell by 0.2% in September from August, and were down 5.3% year-over-year.

Compared to the Septembers of prior years:

● 2024: -5.3%
● 2023: +3.9%
● 2021: -42.1%
● 2020: -47.8%
● 2019: -39.5%

Rising Buyer Fallout Rates

As of August 2025, the national buyer fallout rate surpassed 15% as nearly 1-in-7 home-purchase agreements were canceled, as per a Redfin study. This was the highest cancellation rate for the month of August in Redfin’s records, which date back to 2017.

Some key factors for the rising buyer fallout rates include the combination of record high unaffordability rates for many buyers along with record high average mortgage payments and credit card debt, student loan balances, home insurance costs, and automobile loans at or near all-time record highs on the buyer’s side.

However, many sellers still think that their homes should sell for record high prices, while also refusing to offer any concessions like credits for home repairs or closing costs.

According to another study published by Redfin that included a survey of 443 Redfin agents that was conducted in September 2025, here were the most common reasons for buyers or sellers backing out of their signed home purchase contracts and the percentage of contracts that were affected:

● Home inspection or repair issues: 70.4% of all contracts canceled
● Buyer financing fell through: 27.8%
● Buyer unable to sell current home: 21%
● Change in buyer’s financial situation: 14.9%
● Buyer found another property they liked better: 12.9%
● Concerns about the economic climate: 12.2%
● Seller backed out: 11.5%
● Low appraisal: 7.9%
● Insurance issues (too expensive or couldn’t find coverage): 7%
● High mortgage rates: 6.5%

Target Older Home Sellers and Buyers

If you’re a real estate licensee, a higher percentage of your potential home seller clients are likely to be near the ages of 50 to 60 years. In fact, the median age of a home seller across the nation in 2024 was an all-time record high 63 years of age, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

As I’ve shared before, the median age of a first-time home buyer in the state of California in 2024 was 49 years of age. Again, this was the average first-time home buyer age that used to be in the 20s or 30s in past decades. This is partly because California home prices tend to be almost double the national average, so fewer younger people have the cash or income to qualify for a mortgage.

Because of the older median home seller age, real estate professionals and buyers interested in purchasing either their first home or their 20th investment property should focus on senior-housing communities (55 and older) and other regions where the sellers are more likely to be interested in selling and possibly moving to a smaller property or into other family member’s homes.

For home sellers and their advising listing agents, the Days on Market (DOM) numbers are starting to increase in many U.S. regions. As a result, your creative marketing techniques must be enhanced or tried for the very first time to inspire more people to view your listings online and later visit in person.

NAR’s Home Study Report

The National Association of REALTORS® recently published a very informative study that’s entitled 2025 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, which included details about home buyer characteristics and sales financing trends such as follows:

Characteristics of Homes Purchased

○ Fifteen percent of Younger Boomers bought new homes, compared to only 10 percent of Older Millennials, and nine percent of Younger Millennials.

○ At 42 percent, most recent buyers who purchased new homes were looking to avoid renovations and problems with plumbing or electricity. Buyers who purchased previously owned homes were most often considering a better overall value at 31 percent. Younger Boomers were more likely to purchase a new home to avoid renovations and problems with plumbing or electricity.

○ The most common type of home purchase continued to be detached single-family homes, which comprised 75 percent of all homes purchased.

○ Nineteen percent of buyers over the age of 60 purchased senior-related housing; that number was twenty-five percent for Older Baby Boomers and 27 percent for the Silent Generation.

○ The typical home recently purchased was 1,900 square feet, had three bedrooms and two bathrooms, and was built in 1994.

○ Overall, buyers expected to live in their homes for a median of 15 years, the same as last year.

Financing the Home Purchase

○ Seventy-four percent of recent buyers financed their home purchase. More than 90% of buyers 44 years and younger financed, whereas only 49 percent of Older Baby Boomers and 41 percent of the Silent Generation financed their home.

○ Forty-nine percent of buyers said their down payment came from their savings. Forty-five percent of comparable down payment came from the proceeds from the sale of a primary residence. Seventy-one percent of Younger Millennials and 60 percent of Older Millennials used savings for their down payment, compared to only 37 percent of Older Boomers and 35 percent of the Silent Generation. Older buyers were most likely to use equity from a past home. Younger Millennials used gifts or loans from friends and family more than any other generation.

Home Sellers and Their Selling Experience

○ Younger Boomers made up the largest share of home sellers at 31 percent, had a median age of 65 years, and a median income of $110,700. Gen Xers and Older Boomers comprised the second largest share of sellers at 22 percent.

○ Sixty-nine percent of sellers were married couples. Married couples were highest among Younger Millennials at 82 percent.

○ For all sellers, the most commonly cited reason for selling their home was to move closer to friends and family (23 percent), the home was too small (12 percent), followed by the home being too large (11 percent). Older generations were more likely to move closer to family/friends, and younger generations were more likely to desire a larger home.

○ Ninety percent of home sellers worked with a real estate agent to sell their homes, which was consistent across all age groups.

Helping Realtors & Investors Close More Deals

I’ve created hundreds of articles about fix-and-flips, short sales, seller-financing (subject-to, wraparounds, & paper flips), foreclosure bailouts, and have written real estate licensing courses and college textbooks for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation as well as for the oldest and best-known real estate school in California.

Our team can help you in the following ways:

● I’ve taught real estate licensees in their offices or online and other investors how to find clients, distressed properties, and boost their sphere of influence to find more clients and homes to sell or buy.
● I can teach home buyer prospect seminars either in person or online how to qualify for a home mortgage for Realtor clients.
● Depending on the zip code, city, or county region, my team may be able to refer you to potential distressed properties to purchase or list for sale.
● We’ve assisted with qualifying home buyer prospects at open houses and also provided coffee, donuts, sandwiches, and other types of items that may increase the number of visitors.
● If the seller is distressed (forbearance or foreclosure type of situations) with potentially negative equity and/or years of no mortgage payments made for either residential or commercial real estate properties, my past clients included the #1 largest short sale investor in the nation. I can help negotiate with the existing lender or loan servicing company to get the home sale completed.
● If you or your clients have credit issues, I’ve written numerous courses about credit and may help quickly increase your clients’ FICO credit scores for free.
● I can get you fast pre-approvals and help structure the offer with maximum credits to minimize cash to close.
● My Realloans team and I will simplify your complex deals so that you and your clients are relieved, calm, happy, and close on time.
● I lead the So-Cal Real Estate Investors group where we share the latest real estate trends and deals available for purchase.
● I’m also affiliated with hundreds of real estate investment clubs and 1031 tax-deferred exchange groups, which have tens of thousands of qualified or all-cash buyers who can close quickly.
● We can help get you more views for your listings by sharing mortgage flyers or videos with you and on my networking platforms to optimize viewer traffic.

As we approach the end of 2025 and get ready for the new year, 2026 can either be your best year ever as a real estate licensee or investor, or it could be quite challenging if you’re not willing to make necessary changes.

The choice is yours and yours alone as to your willingness to attempt new creative marketing strategies to boost your sales and/or purchase numbers.

I’m here to help you reach and surpass your goal targets. The best time to start is today, not next year. Best wishes for success in 2026 and beyond!

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Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

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