By Rick Tobin

“All the trees are losing their leaves, and not one of them is worried.”
– Donald Miller
Our lives have often been compared to the four seasons of spring, summer, fall, and winter. Regardless of whether you perceive your current situation in life as bright and sunny or dark and doomy, each season of life is a new opportunity for positive growth that you should embrace.
It’s generally much easier to be grateful when life seems easiest, most fun, and when you have plenty of cash in your pockets. However, some of our best learning experiences tend to happen during our most challenging seasons of life if we’re willing to focus on the potential solutions and opportunities more so that the temporary obstacles standing in our way.
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When many of us think of the fall season, it can be described as a time when natural beauty nearby is filled with colorful trees and more vivid sunsets and weather temperatures are seemingly ideal in most regions.
However, the word “fall” also has negative connotations such as the “Fall of Rome” era, or the end of the Western Roman Empire, that happened near 476 AD when the most powerful region in the world collapsed due to massive health challenges and death from the bubonic plague or Black Death which, in turn, led to hyperinflation, numerous unusual firestorms, a devalued currency system, and war.
“All roads lead to Rome,” as the old saying goes, because history tends to repeat itself, for better or worse.
The Fall of 2025’s Economic Data

Let’s take a closer look below at some concerning economic data that’s been recently shared:
* Foreclosures increased 20% in October 2025.
* Job layoffs in October were the most in 22 years. Published year-to-date job layoffs in 2025 have surpassed year-to-date job losses in 2008.
* New job hires are the slowest since 2009.
* The savings rate is the lowest on record.
* 12.1% of FHA loans are delinquent and make up almost 50% of all Q3 foreclosures.
* Consumer Credit Applications are now being rejected at nearly 25%, the highest rejection rate ever recorded, according to Charles Schwab and the New York Fed as of 10/31/25.
* Mortgage refinance application rejection rates hit 45.7%, an all-time high.
* Average past-due utility bills hit an all-time high at $789, as per The Century Foundation & the University of California Consumer Credit Panel.
* Car repossessions are the highest since 2009.
* The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime automobile loans just reached an all-time record high of 6.65% in October 2025.
* Automobile loan rates are approaching record highs, especially for subprime borrowers (13% to 30%+ rates).
* Student loan delinquencies are the highest ever with nearly 20% of borrowers at 90 days or longer for missed payments.
* Unpaid credit card debt balances reached a record $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025.
* Credit card APRs (rates and fees) are near the highest ever (24%-40%+).
* Early paycheck advance loan rates are as high as 400% to 520% APRs.
* More than 50% of Americans use Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL).
Worsening Debt Trends

In addition to all-time record highs for unpaid credit card debt reaching 1.233 trillion dollars in the third quarter of 2025, the US credit card capacity, or maximum credit card limits, reached a new record high of $5.3 trillion, according to the New York Fed.
However, there’s still nearly $4 trillion dollars in available unused credit for US borrowers to access from their credit cards.
Credit rejection rates for most types of new credit applications continue to soar to new highs, as per New York Fed data and The Kobeissi Letter.
For example, let’s review the percentage rates for credit application rejection rates in recent times:
● Automobile loan rejection rates: 15.2% (second highest on record)
● Credit card rejection rates: 21.2%
● Overall credit application rejection rates: 24.8% (new record)
● Mortgage application rejection rate: 45.7% (new record)
These rejection rates have accelerated at a faster pace since 2020 for many lenders. For example, the overall rejection rate for credit applications has risen by +10.4% between February 2020 and Q3 2025.
Snowballing Federal Debt

In 1790, US national debt was just $70 million. By 1980, it reached $1 trillion for the very first time, which took 220 years to reach. Now, we’ve surpassed a staggering $38 trillion in debt.
It took more than 200 years for the federal debt to surpass the first $1 trillion dollar debt balance number in October 1981. Now, the US federal debt compounds and increases by another $1 trillion every 75 days or so.
The US Treasury posted a $284.4 billion deficit in October, which was the worst opening month to any fiscal year in history.
October’s Interest payment on US debt was a record $104.4 billion, as per Stock Sharks. To put this into better daily perspective, US federal debt is growing at a pace of $22.5 billion every single day.
How is all of this federal debt good for real estate investors?
Answer: It’s more likely than not that inflation will keep rising and the dollar’s purchasing power will keep falling. Because real estate is an exceptional hedge against inflation and an imploding dollar, home prices may either stabilize or keep increasing even if the overall economy keeps on weakening.
Positive Housing Trends in 2nd Half of 2025

Now, let’s review some more positive housing data for Q3 2025:
Single-family home prices had positive gains in 77% of 2350 metro areas in Q3 2025, according to NAR.
Rising Home Prices in Most Metros – Q3 2025
“Home prices rose in Q3 2025, with national median prices up 1.7% to $426,800. Monthly mortgage payments increased to $2,187. The median family income needed for a 20% down payment is $104,996.”
– NAR Research
The Top 5 single-family areas with the highest home appreciation rates in Q3 2025 were are as follows:
1. Owensboro, KY
2. Rockford, IL
3. Springfield, IL
4. Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
5. Fond du Lac, WI
The Top 5 Most Affordable Housing Regions

Here are the Top 5 most affordable cities in America as of October 2025, which have much lower percentage of income to monthly household payment numbers:

Out of the 100 major cities analyzed by RealtyHop, an estimated 68 of the cities had homebuyers paying more than 30% of their monthly income towards household expenses.
Unaffordable Housing Challenges
The dollar’s purchasing power continues to fall at a rapid pace. As a result, it’s still quite challenging to purchase groceries, clothing, cars, or homes at seemingly affordable prices.
The Top 5 Most Unaffordable Housing Regions
Two of the top 5 most unaffordable housing regions in America are located in Southern California – #1 Los Angeles and #2 Irvine, as per the RealtyHop Housing Affordability Index for October 2025.
Average families who earned the median income in Los Angeles must now spend a shockingly high percentage of 84.16% of their income on home ownership costs, as discovered in this RealtyHop survey. If true, the average Los Angeles resident would have just over 15% of household income left over to purchase groceries and pay for utilities, automobiles, clothing, home maintenance, and other basic necessities if they were actually able to qualify for a home mortgage with those very high debt-to-income ratios.

2025’s Most Unaffordable Highest Home Price-to-Household Income Ratio

In 2025, the Top 10 most unaffordable cities with the highest home selling price-to-income ratio are as follows:
1. Los Angeles, CA (12.2x),
2. San Jose, CA (11.0x),
3. Long Beach, CA (10.4x),
4. San Francisco (10.0x),
5. New York, NY (10.0x),
6. San Diego, CA (9.6x),
7. Miami, FL (8.5x),
8. Boston, MA (7.7x),
9. Oakland, CA (7.7x)
10. Seattle, WA (7.2x).
Source: Constructive Coverage
Income & Home Price Disconnection
Sadly, household income has not been rising as quickly as home prices over the past several decades, especially in California. This is partly why more family members are co-signing for mortgages to help buyers qualify.
● Median U.S. household income in 1968: $7,700/year
● Median U.S. household income in 2025: $66,000/year
● Median U.S. household income percentage increase between 1968 and 2025: +764%
● Median U.S. home price percentage increase between 1968 and 2025: +1,967%
Sources: Realtor.com, US Census, and SoFi

Increasing Mortgage Purchase Applications
In spite of mortgage application rejection rates hitting new all-time highs at 45.7%, US consumers are filling out mortgage applications at a faster pace. This may be partly due to so many lenders rejecting mortgage applications and borrower prospects may be completing multiple mortgage applications to qualify.
“US mortgage applications surged to the highest level since 2023 last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of home-purchase applications jumped 7.6% to 181.6 in the week ended Nov. 21, 2025.”
– Yahoo Finance
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Buyer and Borrower Opportunities
The combination of falling rates and falling prices usually inspires more buyers to start looking at properties to purchase. For those buyer prospects who’ve been struggling to qualify for homes priced near all-time record highs in their region may now be pleasantly surprised to learn that they now can actually buy a home.
It’s never been more important than this season of your life to work with experienced mortgage and real estate licensee professionals who have been through the numerous booms and busts of the real estate seasons over the years or decades.
If you have credit or income issues, then please focus on ways to better improve them sooner rather than later so that you’re more likely to later qualify to buy your dream home or the next investment property for your portfolio.
Since the average buyer and seller age these days are within the 59 to 64 age range, many of these same buyers and sellers also made it through both the dark and doomy real estate investing eras up until they started to see more daylight in the perceived sunnier-like seasons.
Tenacity is what’s needed through each season. Instead of worrying about the coldest and darkest days, just remember that it’s always darkest before dawn because the sun does rise every single day just like you do when you rise up out of bed.

Rick Tobin
Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details.
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