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The Unaffordable Housing Crisis

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By Rick Tobin

Can it be true that finding homes to live in using creative seller-financed transactions may soon become easier and more affordable than qualifying to lease or purchase a home with traditional financing options?

The typical home today is about $80,000 higher than it was just two years ago. The average monthly rent payment today is more than $1,000 higher than it was in 2020. Middle-income first-time buyers are unable to afford 70% of homes.

To qualify as a tenant, many landlords require that the tenant applicant’s income be three times the proposed monthly rent. In California where some average rents are $3,000 to $5,000 per month, the qualifying household income would need to be somewhere between $9,000 and $15,000 per month. Additionally, a significant deposit and the paying of at least one month’s rent upfront can be challenging for many tenant applicants.

Most Expensive Home Regions

San Diego is ranked as the #1 most expensive housing market in the nation, as per this U.S. News report. In more recent times in late 2022 and early 2023, San Diego’s home price-to-household income ratio almost reached an average of 15x (15 times), which is three times higher than the national average of 4x or 5x.

“In April 2023, the median listing home price in San Diego, CA was $999K, trending up 6.3% year-over-year. The median listing home price per square foot was $698. The median home sold price was $877K.” – Realtor.com

The main criteria for this Top 10 ranking of the most expensive cities in the nation included the median home price and average salary. In spite of using 2021 household price data, this analysis was recently published in May 2023 and is used as a forecast for the 2023 to 2024 years.

1. San Diego, CA

Average median home price 2021: $889,225
Average salary: $67,200

2. Los Angeles, CA

Average median home price 2021: $807,498
Average salary: $63,056

3. Honolulu, HI

Average median home price 2021: $581,658
Average salary: $61,860

4. Miami, FL

Average median home price 2021: $490,162
Average salary: $54,790

5. Santa Barbara, CA

Average median home price 2021: $464,954
Average salary: $62,020

6. San Francisco, CA

Average median home price 2021: $1,082,875
Average salary: $86,590

7. Salinas, CA

Average median home price 2021: $986,702
Average salary: $56,350

8. Santa Rosa, CA

Average median home price 2021: $828,156
Average salary: $64,080

9. San Juan, Puerto Rico

Average median home price 2021: Not Available (N/A)
Average salary: $31,650

10. Vallejo & Fairfield, CA

Average median home price 2021: $562,567
Average salary: $64,270

The ranking of Santa Barbara, California as #5 is a bit confusing because of the incredibly low median home price that is listed for this region. This data count estimate must take into consideration inland properties that are very far away from the ocean. Homes near the beach in this beautiful region are closer to $2 to $20 million.

Rising Household Income Requirements

Data provided by the California Association of Realtors (20% down payment and 30% front-end DTI or debt-to-income ratio estimates) for the following Southern California counties shows us how ridiculously high the household income requirements now are to purchase a median (or middle) price home based upon the rising mortgage rate trends:

Ventura County: A$205,200 household income is required to purchase an $828,750 home.

Los Angeles County: A $185,200 household income is needed for a $746,750 home.

Orange County: A $296,400 household income is required for a $1.2 million dollar home.

Riverside County: A $148,000 household income is needed for a $597,000 median home price.

San Bernardino County: A $115,200 household income would be needed to purchase a $464,500 home.

Please note that these “median” home prices are right in the middle of the county home averages. For properties close to the Pacific Ocean, the home prices may be 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, or 20+ times higher.

The average owner-occupant in recent years has used just 6% as a down payment instead of the 20% down payment number used for this California Association of Realtors (CAR) estimate. As a result, it’s more likely that the average loan amount for each borrower would be higher and also require mortgage insurance for loans above 80% loan-to-value (LTV). If so, the qualifying household income would probably be much higher than what’s listed on this county forecast estimate provided.

Disappearing Homeowners Insurance

In California, both State Farm and Allstate announced that they will no longer offer new homeowners insurance policies. In recent times, Geico closed down all of their California offices and Progressive stopped advertising in the state. The California FAIR Plan with limited coverage and higher costs than other plans, which is considered the last resort option for homeowners who can’t seem to qualify for other insurance plans, just announced another nearly 50% hike for their annual premiums.

Florida (#1 most expensive homeowners insurance state), Louisiana, Texas, and many other states are tightening up their insurance policy requirements as well or pulling out of these states, so it’s not just happening here in California. Some homeowners insurance policies in Florida are three or four times higher than the national average near $1,800 due to the extreme flood and weather risks there.

Right now, many insurance companies are focused more on not writing new homeowners insurance policies. What happens when some of them later change these restrictions to not allow the renewal ofactive policies?

More than 70% of all homes in California have a mortgage (lenders require active insurance in place to protect their interests also), which is higher than the national average. With fewer insurance plan options available, an increasing number of homeowners will be inspired to sell here in California, Florida, and elsewhere while pushing the listing inventory supply higher.

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Declining Purchasing Power for the Dollar

It’s not Americans “spending too much” that’s causing record inflation. Rather, it’s the combination of the record printing of dollars and the skyrocketing government debt spending that’s crushing the purchasing power of our dollar while making housing increasingly unaffordable to lease or purchase.

Generally, the loosening or tightening of the money supply is the root cause of periods of extreme inflation or deflation. For example, the M1 (cash, checking, etc.) money supply went from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 in just 22 months. As the supply of new money reached the economy, the purchasing power of the dollar rapidly declined and fewer goods, services, and assets could be purchased with the same dollars as I’ve shared before.

Paying Loans Back

At some point, debts have to be paid back if the borrower doesn’t plan on filing for bankruptcy. This is true whether it’s an individual or a billion-dollar corporation with two billion in massive debt.

After more than three years of deferred student loan payments due to the pandemic declaration, millions of consumers will be faced with the reinstatement of monthly payment obligations for student loans starting in late August 2023.

Unpaid student loan debt reached more than $1.75 trillion and automobile loans surpassed $1.55 trillion by April 2023. It’s a $393 per month average payment for student loans. There’s another $1 trillion for all unpaid credit card debt at a 24% rate average.

Consumer spending usually represents about 70% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Student loans equal 7% of GDP. Approximately 64% of the $1.7 trillion in student loan debt has been in forbearance for the past three years, which equates to $1.1 trillion.

Millions of other homeowners haven’t made a monthly mortgage payment as well as far back as 2020. At some point in the future, mortgage lenders or loan service companies will also require the collection of monthly payments with or without a forbearance or loan modification plan in place.

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New FHA Bailout Loan Proposal

It appears that FHA is proposing a 0% interest 2nd loan bailout for the millions of their distressed mortgage borrowers who may be months or years behind in their payments. It’s called the Payment Supplement Partial Claim.

The previously proposed FHA bailout solution offered was a loan modification option which would have doubled or tripled the homeowner’s current rate while not dropping their payments at all. Again, there are millions of distressed FHA loans nationwide that are months or years behind.

Preparing for New Opportunities

As I shared in my previous article entitled A 33-to-1 Vacant & Distressed Home-to-Listed Home Ratio, there are potentially upwards of 18 to 20 million vacant (abandoned, 2nd, and rental homes) or distressed homes in the nation. If just a relatively small percentage of these homes are listed for sale or go into foreclosure, it may more than double or triple the national home listing supply while driving home prices downward.

If and when mortgage rates and other forms of consumer debt rates continue to rise right alongside the national home listing supply, an increasing number of sellers will welcome the creative seller-financed transactions that I share with my So-Cal Real Estate Investors Club members and with my real estate course students across the nation.

For example, how would you like to purchase a home with a minimal down payment, no formal loan qualification, and take over a 2.75% fixed mortgage rate payment that’s lower than a nearby rental?

Now is the best time to learn about creative real estate investment strategies that very few people truly understand well before the housing market begins to change direction yet again. Denial is no longer an option. If you’re the first person to go in a different direction than your competition, you’re more likely to be the first person to succeed due to your preparation.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

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Are You Ready to Invest in a Volatile Real Estate Market?

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By Jimmy King, Founder, Contrarian RE Fund 1, LLC

The recent announcement by Blackstone the final close of its latest global real estate fund, Blackstone Real Estate Partners X (“BREP X”) with $30.4 billion of total capital commitments (the largest real estate or private equity drawdown fund ever raised), reflects confidence for investing in real estate during periods characterized by market volatility. In a news release announcing the fund, a Blackstone executive stated that the company has made some of their best investments in periods characterized by market volatility and dislocation.

The market is certainly volatile at this time, and plentiful opportunities exist to invest in distressed real estate.

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Being successful at these types of investments requires the ability to identify and acquire real estate properties that are being sold at steep discounts. Many of these opportunities exist in multifamily and manufactured home communities that are suddenly being made available for well under the original asking price as owners struggle with increased debt and/or escalating fees. Some are even selling for as little as 60 percent of their original value (2019 highs vs today) . And while opportunities exist, being a successful investor requires a great deal of insight, information and investigation before a purchase is made.

The Contrarian RE Fund 1, LLC, actively researches and identifies distressed real estate assets and reviewing if they are viable options for the fund’s “Value-Add” business model. If they are, the team of experts make purchase decisions regarding the properties by investigating the level of enhancements and improvements that need to be made for each property.

The “Value-Add” business model has realized significant profits since it was first implemented in 2009. By purchasing properties with low rental rates and making substantial physical and operational enhancements that improve both the property and resident experience, the model has been proven to be able to consistently achieve higher rental rates and refinance initial capital investment.

Some of the key factors to consider when making the decision to join a fund that invests in distressed real estate includes:

Size of the Fund

Are you interested in investing in a massive fund, like the $30.4 billion fund structured by Blackstone, or a fund that is less than $50 million? The key differences between massive and smaller investment funds are (JIMMY, WHY WOULD A PERSON CHOOSE A SMALLER FUND? FOR EXAMPLE, DOES A SMALLER FUND PROVIDE A FASTER RETURN ON AN INVESTMENT? ARE THERE FEWER PENALTIES/RISKS? ETC)

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Personal Interaction

A smaller fund will provide you with the opportunity to interact on a personal level with the management team, whereas a larger fund won’t go beyond the standard paperwork to update you on your investment. You’ll also have the opportunity to meet members of the team (the craftspeople and contractors who are working on a real estate renovation that you’ve invested in, for example). It’s highly unlikely that the management team at Blackstone is sharing their cell phone numbers with investors in that fund.

Decision Making Process

As an outcome of the personal interaction with the management team of a small fund, you’ll have the opportunity to contribute to the decision making process. While the team for a smaller fund brings strong real estate market knowledge on a local level, they will also likely be willing to accept input and ideas from knowledgeable investors. Opportunities will present themselves that the management team may not be aware of, but that investors can bring to the table, for the good of everyone.

Intangibles

While the opportunity to invest in distressed real estate is intended to show a profitable return, there are some intangible outcomes as well. For example, renovating properties will help to improve neighborhoods and communities by eliminating blighted real estate. This type of contribution goes far beyond the initial investment, especially when investors are personally familiar with the property and can visit it and feel pride in what they’ve accomplished.

As more and more opportunities to invest in distressed properties present themselves, the time to act is now. If this seems like an appealing investment option to you, be sure to take the time to research what’s available and which type of fund is the best fit for you.

James King is the Founder of the Contrarian RE Fund 1, LLC, and along with his team of professionals has successfully owned and operated more than 2,000 units across the United States. He can be reached at KingCommunities.com ([email protected]) or 562-208-7649.

Poplar Homes Expands to Arizona with Acquisition of Venture REI’s SFR Property Management Business

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Acquisition adds more than 150 homes to Poplar’s growing management portfolio, marks company’s entry into Arizona

CUPERTINO, Calif., — Poplar Homes, the tech-enabled property management company changing the way independent single-family rental investors and multifamily owners manage their rental properties, today announced it has acquired Venture REI’s single-family for rent property management portfolio. The acquisition marks Poplar’s entry into Arizona and adds 152 homes in Scottsdale to the company’s property management portfolio as part of its national expansion.

Venture REI’s short-term rental and investment client property management portfolios were not part of the transaction, and these properties will continue to be managed by Venture REI. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

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Over the past two years, Poplar has significantly expanded its doors under management through 16 strategic acquisitions. “We’re thrilled to be entering the Phoenix market, which is home to some of the largest single-family for rent operators in the country. The combination of Poplar’s model, which leverages technology with experienced on-the-ground property management teams, and Venture’s local expertise levels the playing field for the mom-and-pop investors competing with large institutional investors,” Poplar Co-Founder and CEO Greg Toschi said. “The slowing rental market is a great opportunity to demonstrate the power of Poplar’s model. In addition to having the data and operating leverage needed to properly price and market properties, our clients have the assurance of Poplar’s rent guarantee and eviction protection as well as the benefit of unique renter offerings that allow them to differentiate their properties in a competitive market.”

The acquisition is the latest in a series for Poplar, which serves individual property owners who control two-thirds of the $85 billion single-family rental market, owners of small multifamily properties and individuals looking for a better way to rent while pursuing their dream of homeownership.

Over the past two years, the company has significantly expanded both its doors under management and geographic presence through 16 strategic acquisitions. Poplar currently has 15,000 rental properties under management in 25 markets across 17 states and plans to expand to 20 new markets and reach 30,000 doors in 2023.

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“We grew our single-family rental portfolio organically and it was important that we provide our clients with a provider that offered a best-in-class experience,” said Venture REI Founder Dan Noma Jr. “Poplar shares our commitment to offering unmatched service. This, combined with its tech-forward industry-leading platform, offered the best fit for our team and our clients.”

Lindsay Shoenfeld joins from Venture REI to serve as Poplar’s property manager in Arizona. Poplar combines its proprietary tech-enabled property management platform with the expertise of local property management teams to provide individual property investors with access to the tools and services typically only available to large institutional investors. In addition to being able to track the performance of their investment properties in real time, Poplar clients have the benefit of their properties being managed by local property management professionals as well as guaranteed rent and eviction protection.

For renters, Poplar provides the ability to tour, get approved and rent properties online. They also have access to Poplar’s troubleshooting platform, which resolves two-thirds of maintenance issues remotely as well as local property management teams. In keeping with the company’s mission to partner with customers through every step of their real estate journey, Poplar’s StreetCred program is designed to help renters achieve their homeownership goals.

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Madison Ventures+ Launches Investment Platform to Invest In Affordable Manufactured Housing Communities

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M2 Communities will focus on improving existing manufactured housing communities in high-net migration locations across the Southern United States.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., May 30, 2023 — Madison Ventures+ (“MV+”), a private/venture equity boutique that combines capital investment with hands-on collaboration, announced today the launch of M2 Communities (“M2C”), a new MV+ investment platform designed to help combat the affordable housing crisis in key high-growth markets, while capitalizing on the investment potential of Manufactured Housing Communities (“MHC”), the most stable real estate asset class. M2C will focus its acquisition efforts in high-net migration markets in the Southeastern quadrant of the United States.

“Despite the country’s need for more affordable housing, and MHC’s status as the most affordable form of non-government subsidized housing, manufactured housing has been somewhat ignored by many sophisticated real estate investors,” said Bryan Gordon, Chairman and CEO of MV+ and M2C. “In fact, there have only been about 10 new manufactured housing communities built in the past two decades, and far more than that have gone dark due to redevelopment. The reality is, there is great opportunity in manufactured housing communities, and this is precisely the type of housing investment needed today.”

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Manufactured housing is a home unit constructed entirely off-site at factories prior to being moved to a piece of property. The cost of construction per square foot is considerably less for manufactured housing than for traditional homes constructed onsite. Over the years, the housing option has often been derided, but advancements in technology and building materials mean today’s manufactured housing bears little resemblance to the “mobile homes” of the past.

“As an investment, MHCs have always been and remain one of the most stable, recession-resistant real estate asset classes. Basically, this real estate class has not lost any money even in past recessions,” Gordon said. “We believe that now is the absolute perfect time to reinvigorate manufactured housing communities due to a combination of factors.”

Economic challenges, a worsening housing crisis and improved building quality are combining to create the best market in decades for manufactured housing communities. Private MHCs are projected to be the top-performing real estate asset class over the next five years, according to Green Street Advisors. With a U.S. housing shortfall of more than 5.8 million homes and rental costs skyrocketing, MHCs are becoming an increasingly popular option. M2C will focus its investments in states experiencing a high number of “transplants,” with initial emphasis on Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma.

“Many people think that the affordable housing crisis only affects large urban areas, but it is truly a need everywhere,” Gordon said. “There are rapidly growing populations in these states and each is grappling with how to accommodate the influx of new residents.”

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San Diego-based Muskoka Capital Partners is partnering with MV+ on the new investment platform and its founder, T.K. Frantz, will serve as President and Chief Investment Officer for M2C. Focused exclusively on recession-resistant property types, Muskoka Capital Partners is embedded in the analysis of long-term demographic trends. Its leadership team has a combined 66 years of real estate and capital markets experience focused primarily on multifamily, self storage, industrial and manufactured housing community property types – the top four performing commercial real estate property types over the past 25 years.

“I cannot think of a better time than now to help renew the promise of manufactured housing communities,” Frantz said. “The affordability these communities offer, combined with the advancements in building technology and materials make them incredibly attractive. By concentrating M2C’s efforts on those areas with a high migration rate, we will be able to impact communities where it is most needed.”

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The Millennia Companies® Closes on $32.5 Million in Financing for the Rehabilitation of Linden Terrace in Harrisburg

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The substantial rehabilitation will preserve 124 units of affordable housing for seniors and persons with disabilities in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Cleveland, June 01, 2023 — The Millennia Companies® (Millennia) has closed on $32.5 million in financing for the acquisition and renovation of 124 units of affordable housing for seniors and persons with disabilities at Linden Terrace in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The rehabilitation includes a comprehensive renovation of the 11-story, mid-rise apartment complex. Upon completion, residents will enjoy renovated one-bedroom apartments and amenities such as a community center, art activity space, library, computer lab, and fitness room.

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The construction scope encompasses new windows and doors, roofing, entryways, painting, building enhancements, and landscaping. Additionally, the interior units will receive significant upgrades, including new cabinetry, plumbing, electrical, drywall, and tile work, resulting in new kitchens and bathrooms, among other upgrades.

Millennia anticipates that construction will begin within the next several months and take 15 months to complete. Crews will renovate vacant units first and relocate households onsite as the construction is completed in phases. Residents pay 30 percent of their income toward rent, and rent will remain affordable well into the future as it is subsidized for at least 20 years by a renewed federal Project-Based Section 8 contract.

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The following partners provided financing and resources for this transaction: RedStone (lender), Hunt Capital Partners (Equity Syndicator), Pennsylvania Housing Financing Agency (Bond and Tax Credit Issuer), the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Philadelphia office, and the City of Harrisburg.

Also engaged in this project are Cleveland Construction, Inc. (General Contractor), Dimit (Architect), Millennia Housing Development, Ltd. (developer), and Millennia Housing Management, Ltd. (manager).

“Millennia is proud to facilitate the transformation of the Linden Terrace apartment community,” says Frank T. Sinito, chief executive officer,at Millennia. “With the support of housing and finance partners, we are preserving much-needed affordable housing opportunities for residents of Harrisburg.”

Learn more:

The Millennia Companies® (Millennia), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, is a high-performance business enterprise with a strong sense of mission. Millennia’s portfolio includes more than 280 multifamily housing communities in 26 states. The leading development and property management firm has facilitated over 110 substantial rehabilitations, transforming communities, and preserving much-needed affordable housing opportunities for families. Learn more at www.themillenniacompanies.com.

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New Data Reveals the Most and Least Affordable US States for Renters

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  • West Virginia has seen the smallest increase in rent prices over the past three years 
  • Colorado cities have seen the biggest increase in rent prices over the past three years.  
  • Iowa has seen the second smallest increase in rents prices 

Research reveals that West Virginia has seen the smallest increase in rent prices over the past three years. Colorado is the state where major metropolitan areas are the most expensive for renters as of 2023.  

Moving Companies Experts MovingFeedback analysed data from Zillow.com to reveal the US states whose major metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) have seen the lowest/highest increase in average rent prices over the past three years.   

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West Virginia has seen the lowest percentage rise in rent prices since 2020 of only 12%. In the first three months of 2020, the average rent price in WV was $950.54, compared to an average of $1,066.29 across January, February and March in 2023. This is a 4.5 times smaller decrease than the state with the largest increase, Colorado.   

Coming in second is Iowa with a 15% increase in rent prices in just three years. Renters in MSAs were paying on average $947.54 between January and March 2020 and are now paying $1,085.55; a $138.01 increase.  

Hawaii ranks as the state who’s major MSAs had the third smallest increase in average prices for renters. In the first three months of 2020, rent prices were $2,283.08. The state has seen a $367.05 increase in price, to an average of $2,650.13 between January and March 2023.  

In fourth position is Wyoming where renters have experienced an average 16.45% increase in prices. An increase of $173.26 can be seen in this state over the past three years.   

Louisiana places as having the fifth largest increase in rent, going from $1,108.43 in early 2020, to $1,226.59 in 2023; a 17% increase over the three-year period.   

In sixth position is North Dakota where the major MSAs’ average rent price has increased from $1,087.38 to $1,296.56, coming in just below Louisiana with a 17.67% increase.   

Coming in seventh is Minnesota with a 17.89% increase in rent prices over the past three years. Renters are now paying $1,151.26 compared to $1,357.17 in 2020.  

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Kansas is the state with the eighth highest increase in rent prices of 19.54%.  

In ninth position is Wisconsin where renters are paying on average $935.81; a $1,133.63 increase compared to 2020.  

Massachusetts places tenth in the rankings with a rent percentage increase over the past three years of 21.48%. 

Colorado has been named the most expensive US state for renters in its major metropolitan areas. The state has seen the biggest increase in rent prices over the past three years of 54%. In the first three months of 2020, the average rent price in MSAs in the state was $2,439.56, compared to an average of $3,757.93 across January, February and March in 2023. This is a 4.5 times larger increase than the state with the smallest increase, West Virginia.   

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