rei magazine

Why 2022 is Still a Good Time to Invest in Real Estate

November 7, 2022 By Realty411 Team

Despite Inflation, Despite Interest Rates, Despite a Recession

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
—Warren Buffett

By Jeff Roth

Why to Not Worry About Inflation

Let’s take a look at inflation historically.

Yes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is over 8%, and some say higher because they changed the way CPI is calculated over the years and does not include all items that may show inflation that consumers frequently need to buy.

However, real estate is one of the few assets that is performing well in this inflationary environment.

Values of properties have continued to go up higher than inflation. Buying investment real estate is using the power of inflation to your advantage because prices go higher with inflation because, sadly, the value of the dollar has gone down, and it takes more of those devalued dollars to buy the same house.

Even in 2022, prices are forecasted to go higher.

Rents have also increased greater than the rate of inflation in many places.

So, investing in real estate uses the power of inflation to your advantage.

What about high interest rates?

Why to Not Worry About Interest Rates

Yes, like inflation, interest rates are higher than we have seen in some time, and many would argue the rates were kept artificially low by the Federal Reserve.

So, historically speaking, how bad are interest rates?

Interest rates are elevated, but they still are not as high as they have been at some points in the nation’s history.

Also, if interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation (which they still are in many cases), then the effects of inflation mean you are paying back a long-term debt with dollars that are “worth less” over time because the value of the dollars you are paying the debt back with have been devalued.

Essentially, long-term debt, like mortgages, are an asset themselves in an inflationary environment.

Yet another reason to invest in 2022.

But what about a recession? Won’t that affect the housing market and real estate investments?

Why to Not Worry About a Recession

Home prices have gone up four of the last six recessions.
Part of the reason for this is the lack of housing supply to meet demand.

In fact, a recent study by Freddie Mac states there is a 3.8 million shortage of housing units to meet demand that would need to be built in the coming years in the U.S. https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-housing-coming-national-shortage-035900543.html

This new supply of housing units will need to be built while there is a shortage of skilled trade workers and lingering supply chain issues making material availability and costs unpredictable.

A good exercise, as an investor, is to ask where else can you invest your resources besides real estate and what returns you can expect.

What Are The Investment Alternatives?

There are many alternatives to investing in real estate. Let’s see how they are performing.

Wage Growth- Surely, with all the job shortages reported, there has to be strong wage growth. Actually, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from Sept.13, 2022, real average hourly earnings are down 2.8%, seasonally-adjusted, from August 2021 to August 2022. Did you get a 9% pay increase this year to stay ahead of inflation? If so, you are doing better than most. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

Stock Market Performance- Year-to-date total returns for the S&P Index is down 17.12% according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

Bitcoin- Digital gold is down 57.76% year-to-date according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd

Gold- The original safe haven investment is down 6.82% year-to-date according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gold

Small Business Performance- According to an article from April 2022 entitled “41 Small Business Statistics: Everyone Should Know,” only 40% of small businesses are profitable. https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/small-business-statistics/#gref

So, if there really are no great alternatives to real estate investing in 2022 for the average investor, what is the cost for waiting and giving in to the media’s negative drumbeat about inflation, interest rates and a recession?

What Are The Opportunity Costs For Waiting To Invest in Real Estate?

There are always costs for not making a decision or making a different decision with your resources.

Let’s take a look at the lost wealth over the next 5 years in lost equity if you wait or fail to invest in 2022.

According to Keeping Current Matters and the Home Price Expectation Survey, you would lose out on $102,787 from appreciation alone.

Additionally, you have three more opportunity costs for not investing in real estate in 2022:

1. Interest rates may very well continue to increase.

2. The money you have to invest will lose purchasing power from inflation.

3. The tax benefits from owning real estate will not be realized.

So, the question is, why wait?

Why Wait to Buy Real Estate?

Real estate appreciation and rent increases are greater than the rate of inflation.

Interest rates are still below the rate of inflation and below historical highs.

Home prices have gone up during four of the last six recessions.

All other investment alternatives are losing value in 2022 on average.

Waiting to invest will cost you future projected appreciation, interest rates may continue to increase, the money you have to invest will continue to lose purchasing power, and the tax benefits from owning real estate will not be realized.

Why wait to buy real estate?

To your success!

Jeff Roth
Contributor

Jeff is the founder of Arbor Advising. Arbor Advising is a consultancy based in Ann Arbor, Michigan that is passionate about helping people reach their financial goals with real estate and real estate investing in Michigan with an established record of success in various market conditions. Jeff believes in the value of education and is a contributor to many local and national real estate publications and organizations. Reach out for a confidential consultation to review your specific goals and objectives and join the many satisfied clients that work with Arbor Advising.

You can connect with him at:
www.arboradvising.com
[email protected]
https://twitter.com/ArborAdvising
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100083113851229
https://www.linkedin.com/company/arbor-advising/?viewAsMember=true
https://www.instagram.com/arboradvising/

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411Expo.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

Increasing Mortgage Rates are Only Part of the Problem

November 3, 2022 By Realty411 Team

By Stephanie Mojica

Future and current homeowners have been mesmerized by countless media reports about increasing mortgage rates and decreasing home sales prices. However, the 20-year high in mortgage rates is not the biggest problem facing the real estate market, according to REALTOR.com.

Many residential properties are staying on the market significantly longer because the combination of increased mortgage rates and home prices is too much for the average buyer to bear. As a result, a number of potential buyers are waiting for housing prices to drop, per FOX Business.

As of October 27, 2022, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.08%. The average at the same time last year was 3.14%. The current rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.36%, compared to 2.37% in 2021.

Some real estate investors are panicking over these changes in market conditions, Fortune.com noted. This may be justified, as home prices fell 27% between 2006 and 2012 — and experts expect even more significant reductions in the years to come. Prices have plunged 8.2% in San Francisco, for example.

How To Become A Mortgage Loan Officer

November 2, 2022 By Realty411 Team

Submitted by Stratton Equities

One of the best jobs you can go for these days if you want to work hard, make a lot of money, and change the world around you is to become a mortgage loan officer. There are so many opportunities out there in the real estate world to make a living, but one of the most fulfilling and lucrative is to become a mortgage loan officer for a private money lending firm.

But what are the steps you will have to take to even become a loan officer?

Like most careers that deal with highly valuable assets and specified levels of management and service, to become a loan officer, you need to get your license. The NMLS, or Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System, offers a variety of mortgage licenses but the one in particular that applies to loan officers most is the Mortgage Loan Originator (MLO) license.

How to get licensed as a Mortgage Loan Officer/Originator

Getting an NMLS license will certify that as a loan officer, you are now able to legally serve as a mortgage loan originator. Additionally, it informs your prospective clients and employers, that you are knowledgeable of all the laws and regulations that come with mortgage lending.

More specifically, obtaining an NMLS license means that you have completed a class that teaches you all the requirements for serving as a mortgage loan officer, and that you have passed the SAFE Mortgage Loan Originator Test.

You must complete both tasks to be properly qualified to apply for the NMLS license. Once you have your NMLS license, you can easily apply for most private lending and conventional mortgage lender positions.

Although the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) License covers across the country, you will still need to apply for an individual license per state you are looking to lend in.

Applying to Become a Mortgage Loan Officer with a Private Lender

Believe it or not, the next step in becoming a mortgage loan officer is finding a position at a private lending firm that suits your needs and interests. The NMLS license qualifies loan officers for all private lending and conventional lending mortgage companies. This will allow you to apply for all loan officer positions, however, you will still need the individual license per state.

After applying at your desired location, the interview process shouldn’t be too surprising or different from any other high-level interview process as they will mainly ask you questions and test you on your skillset, knowledge, and ambitions.

Once you’ve secured the position, the best private lending firms will provide thorough training, management, and support.

Working at a Private Lending Mortgage Company

Through training new loan officers, a private lender prepares their sales team to help guide them to mastering some of the nuances required as a loan officer, that cannot be taught purely through an academic mindset.

You must be ready and focused as a loan officer and this level of training throughout the first few months of the job will help get you to that point.

As important as it is to get certified by the NMLS, there is only so much you can learn by studying laws, memorizing loan options, and practicing unique scenarios. The real test of grit is to see how well you work in a real-world setting.

To be successful as a loan officer you need to be sharp-minded at all hours, diligent in the details, dedicated to working hard, and affirmative in your tone, actions, and decisions. Furthermore, be intuitive enough to understand what is a good deal and how to thread the needle if plans don’t go as expected.

The work will be hard but the rewards are great. On average a mortgage loan officer at a private lending mortgage company can make an average of $150,000-$250,000 a year.

Securing Your Position as a Mortgage Loan Officer

To secure your career as a successful loan officer at a private lending institution, there are a couple more things you can do to ensure your success.

Firstly, there is the option to get certified by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and/or the American Bankers Association (ABA). This step is optional and not required for the position of loan officer, but getting this certificate can help boost your credentials, entice more clients to come your way, acquire yourself more deals and negotiations from borrowers, and specialize your skill set such that you are even more knowledgeable and prepared as a loan officer.

Lastly, you must renew your NMLS license every year. This is to ensure that whoever is still practicing they are aware of certain changes in the law, whether it be on the nationwide level or statewide. Additionally, renewing your license frequently keeps you fresh and sharp-minded as you are regularly checked on how well and how prepared you are at the job.

These are all the principal steps one takes when seeking to become a loan officer. The process is fairly intuitive for this type of position while also being thoroughly detailed in ensuring that only the best and most prepared are the ones handling multi-million dollar real estate investment deals.

Become a Mortgage Loan Officer/Originator with Stratton Equities! We’re Hiring!

If you are a licensed Mortgage Loan Originator that is new to the industry and is having a difficult time finding business, we have the solution.

Stratton Equities provides our loan officers with daily direct organic leads, that are from people that call into or apply to our offices looking for a mortgage. Not the other way around. We have a time-tested model that includes a state-of-the-art CRM and lead generation, amazing hands-on training, and the widest range of mortgage loan programs in the industry.

We have niche products that specialize in different types of loans such as Hard Money, No-DOC Loans, Soft Money Loan Programs, Non-QM Loans, Conventional, Fix & Flip, Commercial and more.

Benefits of working with Stratton Equities:

Direct Organic Leads
Hands-on Training & Support
Largest library of niche loan products – say “YES!” more!

Pay: $158,086.00 – $294,677.00 per year
Benefits: 401(k), Dental insurance, Health insurance, Vision insurance

For more information on how to get started as a loan officer, visit Stratton Equities today. We offer the largest variety of loan options that can all be directly accessed by our borrowers. Our starting interest rate is the lowest out of any private money lender, and you can get your loan approved in as little as 24-48 hours.

Additionally, our average time frame in closing loans for our new loan officers is 4-6 weeks after training.

Apply Now at https://www.loanofficerscareers.com and email us at [email protected]

Funding Investors To Create More In-Demand Housing Inventory

October 31, 2022 By Realty411 Team

By Tim Houghten

We seem to be in one of the most interesting and exciting times for real estate investors in recent history. There appears to be both motivated sellers and motivated buyers creating an incredible intersection of opportunity. For many, the ability and scale at which they can take advantage of this phase of the market is all about access to smart leverage and funding for their deals.

We recently connected with Jared Reyes, Vice President of Sales at Center Street Lending to gain insight on their success, what funding is currently available, and how investors can position themselves to make the most of the landscape.

Center Street Lending

Center Street Lending (CSL) is a private lender specializing in Value-add Residential investment properties. The company is coming up on 13 years in business, during which they’ve originated over $3B in residential investment property loans.

Stephen Couig founded Center Street Lending after obtaining his MBA at Dartmouth, and stints with Morgan Stanley and Troon Golf, as well as operating his own residential development company.

He not only saw a big opportunity to fill the void in the business-purpose lending space, but he also aspired to help solve the lack of housing inventory.

As Vice President Jared Reyes says there was, and remains, a shortage of good housing. He adds that either enough hasn’t been built, or what is on the market needs improvement and upgrading.

Investment Property Loans

Both directly, and through their network of mortgage brokers, Center Street Lending provides several types of loans for investors.

Programs include:

Fix and flip loans
Rental property loans
Bridge loans
Ground up construction loans
Long-term rental property loans

Bridge loans provide investors with fast capital when they need to quickly close on new acquisitions. These loans are available on SFRs, up to 4-unit properties, townhomes, and condos, including for foreign nationals.

Rental property loans are available for refinance or purchase, for short- and long-term rental operators.

Center Street’s Strength: Fix & Flip Loans

Center Street Lending’s portfolio Fix & Flip loan program offers up to 85% LTV on the purchase price, or 100% of rehab costs.

Flexible loan terms range from 6 to 18 months. Funding is available in at least 18 states across the US.

Loan amounts start at $100k, with closings in as little as 10 -14 business days.

Center Street’s Strength: Ground Up Construction

One of the programs CSL is most known for is funding ground up construction projects.

Whether it’s helping newer investors get started in real estate or those already doing several projects a month, Center Street Lending sees themselves as a catalyst for starting and growing real-estate investment businesses.

Their construction loans fund non-owner occupied 2-4 unit builds, townhomes, PUDs, and condos. Flexible terms range from 9 to 18 months, with loan amounts up to $10M.

Financing goes up to 80% Loan-To-Cost (LTC). The team at Center Street pride themselves on fast, no-hassle draws on funds.

Tips For Real Estate Investors

While the market may be strong and moving swiftly, Center Street wants to work with solid borrowers with good projects. In today’s market, those flipping houses and building new inventory are facing more challenges than ever before. Center Street’s loan / project journey, which consists of loan origination, servicing, and fund control gives investors more transparency to navigate through supply chain delays, permit delays, and labor shortages.

To stay ahead, to continue to be successful, and to maintain access to the best funding to scale, CSL recommends:

Be detailed in costs management
Build in contingencies for volatility
Be smart about the project at hand
Show the work / show the experience

What’s Different About Center Street Lending? Smarter Loans for Residential Investors

Center Street Lending stands out from traditional lending with some more creative loan programs specifically designed for investors, especially those interested in value-add construction projects.

CSL focuses on relationships with their borrowers as they continue to grow their businesses. The team is built with experienced and knowledgeable members who can communicate with borrowers about their complex needs.

Something that is different than most is that they do everything in house; that means the ability to underwrite and fund loans in house. Another key bonus is CSL’s ability to retain the servicing on their loans so that investors continue to have the same point of contact — one who cares about the long-term relationship.

For those interested in running their deal scenarios by Center Street Lending, please contact them to find out more.

Connect with Center Street Lending (CSL) today at (949) 449-2594

Is Buying an Airbnb a Good Investment?

October 26, 2022 By Realty411 Team

Submitted by Clinton Lu, TFS Properties

Airbnb is growing increasingly popular, with around 46 million users in the US alone. It might be tempting to buy a rental property and rent it out on Airbnb, but is buying an Airbnb a good investment?

Before deciding to find tenants on Airbnb instead of getting traditional long-term tenants, it’s essential to weigh the pros and cons. Here’s what you need to know about the pros and cons of investing in an Airbnb vs. renting to a traditional long-term tenant.

The Advantages of Using Airbnb as an Investment Strategy

With travel picking up again, many real estate investors are again looking to buy properties and rent them out on Airbnb instead of renting to traditional tenants. Here are the primary advantages of investing in Airbnb rental properties.

It May Be More Lucrative

Long-term rentals typically have monthly rates. On the other hand, a short-term rental can have a nightly, weekly, or monthly rate. Instead of charging $1,500/month, you may be able to charge $100/day ($3,000 for a full month), potentially doubling your income. You can even charge extra for cleaning fees.

Furthermore, you may be able to increase your income by offering tours or other services associated with your Airbnb experience. If you can’t provide them yourself, you may be able to refer them to a tour agency in exchange for a commission.

You Have More Flexibility

As an Airbnb host, you have more flexibility over your property. You can block your calendar if you want, so you can stay there yourself. You can even use it as your primary residence and rent it when you are on vacation.
Not only that, but you can offer both short and long-term rentals. For example, you can limit stays to five days, or you can have a two-night minimum. In all, renting your property as an Airbnb offers more flexibility in how you or your tenants use it.

You Won’t Have to Worry About Collecting Payment

Dealing with a single tenant is hit-and-miss. Some tenants are fantastic, while others don’t pay on time. Fortunately, Airbnb handles all payments on its platform and collects payments for you.

Sure, some tenants might cancel at the last minute, but only if you offer a flexible cancellation policy. From our experience working with Airbnb owners, only a tiny percentage of your guests will ever give you issues.

The Disadvantages of Airbnb Investments

Is buying an Airbnb a good investment? Relying on Airbnb for rental income has some disadvantages compared to a traditional rental property. Like with any other investment, it’s best to know the good and the bad before you decide to go with any one strategy for your property.

You Have to Furnish It and Pay for Amenities and Services

Furnish the property with tables, chairs, and beds and also pay for water, electricity, internet and potentially more.

For traditional rentals, it’s not difficult to find long-term tenants willing to rent an unfurnished apartment, as they typically have furniture or expect to buy some. Furthermore, they will have to pay for their own amenities and services like gas, electricity, water, internet, and cable.

Your initial investment as an Airbnb host is higher. It’s not enough to buy a home; you must also furnish it. And if you want good reviews and return visitors, you shouldn’t cheap out and purchase low-quality furniture or bedding. The bed obviously has to be comfortable, and the more stylish your place is the more likely your tenants are to enjoy the experience – and tell friends about it. Adding decorations and making the place as cozy as possible will get you more guests and better reviews.

In addition to furnishings, you will have higher ongoing costs as an Airbnb host. You will need to pay for electricity, water, gas, air conditioning, and internet. Cable or TV streaming services are optional, but we highly recommend adding such amenities to your Airbnb experience. Some guests will use more water and electricity than others. All these are additional costs an Airbnb investor should expect to incur.

You May Not Get Many Guests at First

There are many factors to consider when deciding whether Airbnb would be a good investment. The first is how popular tourism is in your area. Is tourism popular all around the year, or is there only a high demand during specific months? Airbnb can be a seasonal business, so you have to consider whether it’s worth losing long-term lenders.

Furthermore, attracting guests at first can be difficult. If you have a new listing with no or few reviews, people will naturally be hesitant to book with you.

Here are some tips to help you get started with a fresh Airbnb:

To begin, you may need to offer discounted rates and ensure your listing promotes your place well to counter this hesitation.
Invest in professional, high-quality photos to make your online listing shine.
Respond to all inquiries timely. And be polite, professional, and friendly in all communications with prospective tenants.
Answer any questions guests may have honestly. Guests often ask more questions when considering places with no reviews, as they want to make sure the home and host are legit.

How to Find a Good Airbnb Rental Property

Whether you’re working with a real estate agent or buying directly from sellers, there are a few factors to consider before deciding that a property is worth renting on Airbnb.

Is the Area Central and Safe?

Tourists coming to a new city don’t want to stay far outside the city center. They may be unfamiliar with the public transport system, and if they’re flying in, they may not have a car. If the property is close to the main attractions or if there is an easy way to get there by public transport, it would make a good Airbnb.

The area should also be quiet and safe, if possible. People will mention safety and noise issues in the reviews, so make sure to scout out your property’s neighborhood and surroundings before making your decision.

What Are the Local Laws About Airbnb?

Some cities have laws targeting Airbnbs. In San Francisco, you can only rent out your primary residence (a place you stay at least 275 nights per year). That makes investing in Airbnb properties impossible. Lawmakers create those laws to avoid driving up the real estate market.

Even if there aren’t any laws against Airbnbs, the building’s management company may forbid Airbnb rentals. That’s because some Airbnb guests are loud and bother the long-term tenants.

Before investing in an Airbnb, make sure that the city isn’t considering any laws regulating short-term rentals, even if no regulations currently exist.

Is It a Touristy City?

Not all of your guests will be tourists. Some will be people who stay in the city for business for a few weeks or months. Others will be digital nomads. However, running an Airbnb will be problematic if the town is not touristy at all. Ultimately, most Airbnb tenants are travelers and tourists, so you’ll need to make sure your location attracts these common types of guests.

Tips for Running a Successful Airbnb Business

If you decide to buy an Airbnb property, follow these tips to increase your chances of success. Remember, running any type of business requires dedication, risk management, and hard work.

Calculate Your Expenses

Calculate both your initial startup expenses and any ongoing expenses. Your startup expenses will include the cost of the property, any necessary repairs, furnishings, and decorations. Ongoing expenses will consist of utility bills, taxes, and Airbnb commissions.

By calculating how much money you have to invest, you can figure out what to charge your guests and how long it will take to recover your initial investment.

Plan for the Low Season

It’s also important to calculate the best-case and worst-case scenarios regarding occupancy rates. If your city’s tourism industry is seasonal, you’ll need to charge more during the high season to offset your losses during the low season. You might also block the calendar for half the year and rent to a traditional short-term tenant for six months. An Airbnb investment’s flexibility means you can make these kinds of decisions as you go.

Always Provide the Best Customer Service

Your success as an Airbnb host depends almost entirely on the level of customer service and support you provide. You’ll need to always be on hand to respond to guests when they have issues, whether they are having trouble with the Wi-Fi password or there is a leak in the bathroom.

Consider getting a friend or partner to manage your listing with you. Airbnb allows you to add co-hosts to your listings, which is necessary if you are busy at work most of the day and can’t respond to guests.

Be friendly — and never rude to guests. Small hospitality touches like leaving a plate of cookies or fruit on the table make a big difference. Ask customers for reviews, but don’t be too pushy about it. Leave customers reviews to encourage them to review you (per Airbnb policy, they won’t be able to read your review until they write one themselves or until two weeks pass).

Be Flexible When Starting Out

To get more customers, offer discounted rates at the beginning. Also, offer a flexible cancellation policy. Though most customers won’t end up canceling, giving your guests that flexibility is an attractive amenity that people appreciate. After you get enough reviews, you can switch to a stricter cancellation policy.

Offer Weekly or Monthly Discounts

Sometimes, you can increase your profits by encouraging weekly and monthly rentals. Airbnb allows you to offer discounts for longer-term stays. Monthly stays work a bit differently on Airbnb. For example, they have less flexible cancellation policies. Read up on Airbnb’s policies and recommendations on their site for more info on the differences on daily, weekly, or monthly stays to best plan your offering.

Create a Professional Listing

Create a listing that fully details the apartment, its amenities, and the location. Take professional pictures showing the house or apartment from multiple angles, and try to be welcoming and friendly. Use your profile picture instead of a business logo. After all, Airbnb is all about personalized, human-to-human connections.

Work With a Real Estate Agent

Our real estate agents specialize in finding Airbnb investment properties to existing and new hosts. At TFS Properties, our professionals have a track record of success with our clients. Here are just a few highlights:

Our Airbnb’s produces a passive 8-12%+ Net Cash Flow
Our Airbnb’s are a passive investment option. We will help you find the property, buy it, design it, and place it into one of our property management team’s Airbnb super host accounts to help you start earning money right away. We also use dynamic pricing and adjust the price of the Airbnb based on what events are being held or if there is a major holiday. During these times our team will up the price of your rental ensuring the highest possible profit from your Airbnb.
From acquisition to booking the Airbnb we can take care of the client from A to Z.
Our team spends countless hours researching which markets across the United States are good Airbnb markets and will use this information to help guide our investor’s purchases.
After everything is set up, our property management team will take care of issues that arise and manage your reservations for you. All the investor has to do is log into their online portal and see how their investment is doing.

Work With Us

Final Thoughts

So, is buying an Airbnb a good investment?

While Airbnb requires a more significant investment upfront than traditional renting, it also offers more flexibility and the potential for greater earnings. Ultimately, several important factors, such as the area and tourism industry of the city, will decide whether buying an Airbnb property is worth it.

Do your research, scout your location, and provide a great Airbnb experience – and you will be earning returns in no time.

4 Questions Every Real Estate Investor Should be Asking About Inflation

October 25, 2022 By Realty411 Team

By Strategic Passive Investments

Since the start of 2022, there have been a number of historic “mile markers” in the U.S. economy. For example:

Used cars rose in price by 22.7 percent year-over-year as of May 2022.
Gas prices jumped from $3.38/gallon (average) during the first week of January 2022 to $5.10/gallon (average) as of mid-June.
Interest rates rose from just over 3 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in January 2022 to nearly 6 percent at the end of June 2022.
Perhaps most troubling of all was the issue of rising inflation, which had already been heading skyward toward the end of 2021. By May 2022, the annual inflation rate in the United States hit 8.6 percent, the highest since December 1981 and higher than even most pessimistic forecasts.
To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve warned that in order to get inflation “under control,” it would probably continue to raise interest rates over the course of the remainder of the year.

Traditionally, most buy-and-hold real estate investors have not worried too much about inflation. After all, real estate is probably the most time-honored hedge against this issue because it performs more reliably than precious metals, the other traditional hedge, and tends to appreciate faster and on a more predictable trajectory.

However, with inflation rates causing huge leaps in prices and affecting the country’s already troubled supply chain, investors need to ask themselves four important questions before they sit back and feel smug about their portfolio. Fail to consider and allow for the answers to these questions (and some of them may surprise you), and you could end up paying far more than you expected for your complacence in the face of what many economists are beginning to dub the “national emergency” of inflation.

Question 1: Am I adequately insured?

Properties have gained quite a bit of value since the pandemic began, and that is generally considered to be good news for real estate investors. If your insurance company operates like most, you probably will see the effects of this appreciation when you get your annual update about your insurance policy. In short, your rates are probably going to rise. However, there is a good chance that even your trusty insurance agent may not have factored in everything they should have when it comes to keeping your properties adequately insured.

Take a careful look at the replacement-cost estimates in your policy. You will need to consider the costs of waiting on materials as well as transporting and replacing materials in the event of damage. If you have rentals, then this is an even bigger deal because you will have to help your tenants deal with this as well. That will also cost money.

Talk to your agent and make sure your policy fully reflects the elevated costs of materials and labor and the potentially new costs of waiting an extended period of time for both.

Question 2: What is the real inflation rate?

Depending on whether an analyst is trying to play up inflation or play it down, you may hear numbers ranging from nearly 9 percent to as low as 0.3 percent. This is because when an analyst says “inflation,” they can mean several different things. For most investors and, indeed, most of the general population, the higher numbers seem far more relevant to daily life than the lower ones. However, for a Fed official trying to make it home while dodging pitchforks, the desire to insist that that April’s inflation rate was 0.6 percent is incredibly tempting.

To get lower inflation numbers in today’s economy, analysts look at core inflation rate. Core inflation rate measures exclude oil and food prices, which some analysts argue are “too volatile” to factor in. Of course, since we all eat food and use oil directly and indirectly, that volatility is highly relevant to us.

Question 3: Is some inflation really “healthy,” as we are being told?

If you have been monitoring the economy for the past decade, you probably have already realized that inflation has been held to an artificially low and unrealistic level for many, many years by policymakers desperate to keep a recession away from their terms in office. This is one reason that interest rates have been so low for so long, and now the time has come to pay the piper. Most economists agree that about 2 percent inflation is good for economic growth because it spurs demand without putting too much pressure on the consumer pocketbook.

However, because inflation has been kept near zero for so long and because consumers have largely forgotten how to handle it, today’s inflation is not just rising too fast, but it is also causing a national freak-out that is actually driving other markets awry.

For example, when real estate prices become outrageous, the market usually would react by cooling. However, in today’s market, the higher the prices, the more people rush in to buy before interest rates rise or inflation prices them out. Today’s inflation is not just too much and too fast, it is also a massive market disruptor in and of itself.

Inflation has always been driven, in large part, by the expectation that things will get more expensive. Now, spending is being driven by the expectation that things will never be affordable again. That’s a big difference, and one that will affect what both renters and buyers do when it comes to obtaining housing.

Question 4: At what point will inflation spiral out of control?

In theory, a free market will eventually right itself, however painful the process, when things get too far out of hand. In today’s market, however, things are not really free. They are managed by Fed policy, local policies, government protections, IRS interference, and a vast array of other factors. As a result, it might be tempting to believe that our market will eventually slow inflation and things will calm down, but realistic investors must accept the potential outcome that inflation will spiral out of control for a very extended period of time that actually seems permanent.

Will the market eventually correct? Probably. But you do not want to be unprepared for the weirdness and potential disaster that could occur in the interim.

One of the weirdest things inflation is doing right now in terms of affecting the consumer mindset is that renters are starting to bid on their rents. While this has long been part of the equation in extremely attractive locations like Manhattan, now it is happening in many metro areas and even suburban locales including southeastern locations like Atlanta, Georgia. Essentially, when renters submit an application, they also include an offer to pay more than the going rent rate. As a result, their application is more attractive than others and they get their desired rental.

This is an example of self-fulfilling inflation because as more renters encounter this practice, more renters are finding it necessary to enact it. As an investor, you may wish to notify potential applicants that this is an option (if you choose to make it an option) and, in the worlds of one New York-area broker, “politely recommend it.”

Inflation Does Not Have to be the End of the World

For real estate investors, inflation does not have to be the end of the world even if you have not yet built up a massive portfolio to hedge against it. Just be certain that you understand what is going on with inflation and exactly how it will affect both your properties and your acquisition processes. It might be the time to change your strategy, or it might be time to ramp up operations. This can be a good time to be in real estate, but you must be willing to ask questions and then act decisively once you have answers.