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U.S. Market Plunges, Realty411 Experts: “Recession On the Way…”

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by Stephanie Mojica

The Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to nearly zero on Sunday, March 15, sending real estate investors and the world at large into even more panic over the very real financial threats of the coronavirus aka COVID-19.

This of course drew the overall question of, is the United States now in a recession?

The opinions of experts interviewed by Realty411 on Monday, March 16, varied. However, the opinions all held one common thread — the economy of the United States and the world at large is in danger.

Gena Lofton, a Los Angeles-based investor, speaker, and author, said that she believes a recession officially began this first quarter of 2020, even before the interest rates were slashed.

“It’s highly likely that we will have low to no economic growth for the next two quarters, which is the definition of a recession,” Lofton said.

However, she noted that there are two more important questions for concerned parties to ask: 

·      When will it end?

·      Will it be a “depression” or a recession?

“The answers to the above questions are dependent upon the severity (i.e., the depth) [of this economic downturn]; the length (i.e., the number of quarters); and the of fatalities as a result of the coronavirus — all of which will result in financial disasters for a large part of society,” Lofton said.

“It is highly probable that this will spill into 2021, as the money supply and supply chains have been broken for too long. For example, when an economy is chocked for this long without air (money) it is nearly impossible for it NOT to have a recession.

“The example I like to use is it’s like holding your breath underwater, if one does that for too long, they will either die or be unable to function when they do get air.”   

According to Lofton, it is important for all investors and other concerned parties to deeply understand four factors:

·      the money supply;

·      the credit/bond market;

·      supply chains; and

·      economics in general

Bruce Norris, president of the Riverside, Calif.-based Norris Group and an active investor, hard money lender, and real estate educator with over 35 years of experience, said a recession is on its way.

“I think it’s [the Federal Reserve’s decision is] a reaction to realizing there’s a U.S. recession coming for sure,” Norris said. “A global one is likely as well.”

In response to a question about how serious COVID-19 is to the global economy in general, Norris said: “It’s [COVID-19 is] the biggest Black Swan event of our lifetime.”

According to Norris, the current situation is worse than the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008 — but it could be of a shorter duration.

However, “depending on how high unemployment goes, this could impact renters’ ability to make rent,” Norris added.

Lloyd Segal, director of LAREIC (Los Angeles Real Estate Investor Club) — the largest real estate investing group in Los Angeles — also said a recession is on its way. However, he urged people not to panic.

“The best way to protect your real estate portfolio is not to sell!” Segal said. “No panic selling. Hold off on any activity for the next six months until the market stabilizes.

Sam Sadat, founder of Sam’s Real Estate Club in Los Angeles, Calif., feels the recession for the economy has started, but not specifically for real estate investors. “As long as rates stay this low, we will have buyers.”

While panic selling is to be avoided, Sadat says this economic hurdle is the perfect time to re-adjust your portfolio and sell off the not-so-good properties to focus on the long-term winners.

“Save your money and get as much access to capital as you can. Look for bargains and invest in long term small multi-units,” Sadat adds.

It’s important for Realty411 readers to be aware that fortunes can be lost or made during economic turmoil, such as recessions.

“I’m sharing with my members and students that whenever the market goes through sudden upheavals, prices inevitably tumble,” says Segal, adding: “It happened after 9/11 and after SARS, H1N1, and Ebola. But it takes months, not weeks. So, get ready — but be judicious. There will be incredible opportunities in the coming months!”

Sadat says that right now noise will be coming at us from all sides, especially political hype during an election year. With this in mind, he emphasizes a holistic approach: “Keep to the center, sharpen your skills, and observe with maximum awareness of the moment. This too shall pass, and we will be just fine.”

Check back regularly for more updates on this developing story, plus special breaking news reports on COVID-19’s disruptive impact on our economy and industry.

Real Estate Investing: A Market Correction is Coming

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By Tim Houghten

It’s inevitable. A market correction is coming. The market has been on a high for years now. In 2018 alone, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke a record high 15 times. If history has taught us anything, it’s that the market cannot sustain those highs for that long without a correction. Real estate markets across the country are still very hot. Even with the “cooling” that some markets are seeing, real estate prices are still well above records and competition is hot. “A cool-down has been predicted for over in a year in our local market. However, I’ve yet to see it. Sure there are some longer list times for sellers but properties are still selling in record time over asking price. It’s still a hot market,” says Eric Jones, Director of Sales and Marketing for Freedom Real Estate Group.

With all that being said, the question on every wise investor’s mind: how can I prepare myself for the next recession? The short answer, diversify. The long answer, diversify into buy and hold, long-term strategies.

“The short-game (fix and flip) is good. It’s instant return. But you get hit hard by the tax man. Buy and hold has some of the best tax advantages of any asset class,” Jones stated. “Depreciation, property taxes, mortgage insurance and more are all deductible expenses. Plus, with fix and flips, it’s simply not a long-term strategy. It’s not a way to build true wealth.”

To lessen the risk of any big swing in the market, the answer is to diversify your investment portfolio so all your eggs aren’t in one basket. The problem many individuals faced in 2008 was that most of their 401k or other retirement accounts were tied up in stocks and mutual funds. When the market tanked, so did their accounts. Now imagine if half of those funds were diversified into buy and hold real estate. For many, the outcome could have been vastly different. Here’s why.

The key to cash flowing, rental properties is that even during a down economy, they’re still cash flowing at the same amount. In some cases, even higher. Let’s look at it this way. If you were getting an 8% return on your stock investments, and the market crashes, you’re likely going to be reduced to 2%-4% if you are lucky. With rental properties, the rent amount stays the same. Your mortgage stays the same. Your property management fees, if you have them, stay the same. Essentially, if you were getting 8% returns on your property before, you’re still getting that. In a down economy, rents rarely go down. You may not be able to get rent increases during that time, but you will at least have a steady, consistent amount of cash coming in each month.

Rental properties tend to weather a down market in a consistent or even appreciating way. Not necessarily appreciating in value of the asset but appreciating in terms of cash flow being received. In a bad economy, a few things are happening. People simply aren’t buying homes. Credit is tighter. People are scared. The pocketbook is squeezed. Instead of purchasing, individuals and small families tend to continue renting during a recession. In addition, those that may be losing their homes to a foreclosure turn to single-family or duplex style rentals since it’s more private and familiar than a large apartment complex. Therefore, demand may actually increase in a down market which is a huge win for rental property owners.

With all that being said, a down market is definitely not the time to sell your rental properties. It’s a buy and hold strategy. During a down market, it is always best to hold these properties unless there is some absolute reason you must sell. When the market begins to climb again, then you may want to consider selling to upgrade to another investment property in a better neighborhood or better yet, purchase two and double your cash flow.

The best part of investing in rental properties is investors are wealth building while cash flowing. Very few investments offer this kind of opportunity. With a buy and hold strategy, you are receiving the benefit of monthly cash flow while also building a portfolio of tangible assets that will always – no matter the market – have value. “If you have the right plan, with a decent amount to invest, you can quickly scale up to a very healthy portfolio. We worked with a dentist who had $400k to invest and wanted to receive $10,000 a month in cash flow so he could retire. We built a plan and got him to his goal in three and a half years. He was able to retire early. However, not only did he keep receiving the cash flow each month, now he has tangible assets that he can sell off if he ever needed to and can pass on to his children and grandchildren,” Dani Lynn Robison, Co-Founder of Freedom Real Estate Group stated.

Something else to consider is how you are using the power of inflation to your advantage. Most 401k plans aren’t able to keep up with inflation. With the small returns and high managements fees, unless you are able to invest a lot in those funds, you may not even be able to keep up with the rate of inflation. However, with rental property, you are working with inflation to win in two ways. First, your mortgage payment doesn’t change. Let’s say when you purchased the property it was a $500 per month payment. If the market tanks, it’s still a $500 payment on a fixed rate loan. If the market is great, same payment. When the market is doing well, your asset, if all goes as planned, is increasing in value. You’re actually earning value on the asset while effectively reducing the value of the money you’re paying due to inflation. Second, you will likely be able to increase the rental amount between 1%-5% per year. That’s additional cash flow and value you will be receiving yearly.

Finally, it’s important to note that this is an investment and with any investment, there is inherent risk. No investment is guaranteed. However, real estate is one of the most proven, asset-based investment classes in history. Most millionaires were either made through investing in real estate or find large value in investing in real estate. As you explore this investment opportunity, look for markets that do not have super highs or super lows in market crashes (like 2008). States affected greatly were Florida, California and Arizona. One of the cities most notorious for being hit hard in the crash was Las Vegas. These may be markets to steer clear of. If a market crash occurs again, it may cause migration out of those areas resulting in rent losses. “Consider markets that may seem ‘boring’ like many in the Midwest including our market – Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio. These have proven to weather a down economy and not have big drops in real estate values or population. These are the markets where you truly win.” Eric said.

Diversification is the key to weathering a down turn in the market. More specifically, investing in buy and hold rental properties not only is a proven strategy to survive and even thrive in a down market, but one that holds many positive attributes such as consistent cash flow, numerous tax benefits, and true wealth building.

Kathy’s 2019 Housing Forecast

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By Kathy Fettke, Co-CEO of the Real Wealth Network

Welcome to my 2019 Housing Forecast! I’ve been doing these predictions for many years starting well before the housing crisis, when loans were easy and home prices only went “up.”

I was a mortgage broker back then, and knew something was very wrong in the lending world. I couldn’t understand how it made sense that I was able to give a loan to just about anyone… and I got my answer in2008 when the housing market crashed.

Since then, it’s become my passion to understand the politics behind economics, so that I’m never caught off guard again. Please note:these thoughts are my opinions only. and not to be construed as financial advice.

My theory on the housing market boils down to these three factors:

Real estate values are tied to jobs.

Jobs are tied to the economy.

The economy is tied to Federal Reserve policy and government regulations.

That’s a very simplified version of the housing market machine, but decisions by the Federal Reserve and the government can have a torpedo-like impact on real estate. So if you take a  close look at what’s happening with the central bank and government policy, you might get a clue as to what is coming.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve attempts to regulate the economy by controlling the money supply. When there’s more money flowing, prices tend to increase. When there’s less liquidity, less money circulating, prices tend to decline. One of the ways the Fed controls the circulation of money is by raising or lowering the overnight lending rates –basically what it costs banks to borrow money and lend it out.

The Fed lowered these short-term interest rates to near zero levels after the Great Recession, in an attempt to jumpstart a flat-lined economy. It also bought bonds to keep interest rates low, and launched quantitative easing programs that essentially created money “out of thin air” for circulation.

It worked! With trillions of new, freshly minted dollars circulating, the economy came back to life, and a decade later, is booming.

But, a boom can also lead to a bubble, and bubbles burst. So the Fed regulates booms by lowering interest rates. One sign of an overheated economy is runaway inflation, so the Federal Reserve set 2% inflation as a benchmark for raising rates. Inflation hit that 2% mark in 2015, so the Fed began to reverse it’s easy money policies by raising rates.  Since then, the Fed has raised rates nine times, including four rate hikes in 2018 alone.

This attempt to slow things down also worked!

It’s not surprising. Higher rates make everything more expensive, which can curb borrowing and spending. This effectively pulls the throttle on the economy and slows down inflation.

Plus, there may be another reason why the Fed has been steadily raising rates. The economy has been booming for a decade now, and many economists believe it’s now near its peak. Some are predicting a recession by 2020. One of the Federal Reserve’s arsenals for turning around a recession is to lower interest rates. But if rates are already low, the Fed has nowhere to go. It has to go up first so it can go down again in the future. Therefore, some say the Fed has been raising rates so that they can lower rates again next year.

Mortgage Rates

Higher short-term interest rates makes it more expensive to buy cars,take out equity loans, and use credit cards. They also make variable-rate mortgages higher, but they do not have a direct influence on long-term mortgage rates. In fact, in December when the Fed raised rates for the 4th time, long-term mortgage rates actually went down. Why?

Long-term rates follow the bond market more closely than the Fed Fund rate. When investors are confident, they invest in the stock market. When they are fearful, they seek the safety of bonds — specifically the 10-year Treasury note. Those same investors tend to flock to the safety of mortgage-backed securities. When more investors are buying, prices decline. So when there’s more fear in the market, long-term interest rates tend to soften.

The Fed’s December rate hike rattled the stock market, sending anxious investors to the safety of bonds. As a result, stocks took a sharp nose dive in December. More purchasers of bonds and mortgage-backed securities effectively lowered long-term mortgage rates. This could help boosts home sales in the Spring.

The Federal Government

When it comes to the federal government, we’ve seen major policy changes that are influencing the housing market. Several are contained in the massive tax reform package that cut taxes and changed the rules for deductions. By lowering the corporate tax rate to 21%, businesses have more money to reinvest and expand their workforce, which puts more people back to work.

One of the biggest benefits for real estate investors is the new pass-through rule that allows people with LLCs and similar business operations to take a 20% deduction. So there are big benefits for all those Mom and Pop landlords who operate as LLCs. The new rules also preserve the highly-prized 1031 exchange, which was at risk of being eliminated. The new Opportunity Zone tax break program is also part of that tax package.

Homeowners didn’t make out as well. They lost deductions for things like vacation homes and large mortgage payments, making homeownership, for some people, more expensive.

Low Unemployment

As I mentioned, those tax cuts were designed to lower the unemployment rate, which is now so low that it’s actually unhealthy for the economy. The data shows that we have more open positions than people looking for jobs. When there’s a shortage of workers, employers have to pay more. That extra expense is then passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices which contribute to inflation. If we start seeing higher prices, the Fed will be inclined to raise those short-term interest rates, which can also trigger other repercussions, like that stock market volatility.

What we need is workforce growth right now — not job growth. And this is a critical element for today’s economy because our workforce is actually shrinking. The U.S. birthrate has dropped to a 30-year low and continues to fall. Baby Boomers will be retiring in massive numbers, leaving more open positions in their wake. And there’s the debate over immigration, and the value of immigrants for jobs like farming and construction.

Economic and Housing Repercussions

So here are some of my predictions for 2019:

The GDP will slow down to around 2% from 3%, as the effects of those tax cuts wear off. High housing prices and interest rates could also help slow growth, along with trade tensions, domestic politics, and the current pullback by China. But, I don’t think we’ll see a recession, this year.

Unemployment will rise slightly due to a changing workforce that includes less corporate dollars for new jobs. An unemployment rate of4 to 6% is considered healthy, so a slightly higher jobless rate could be good for our economy.

Mortgage rates will remain relatively low. The Fed is expected to hold off on rate hikes during the first half of the year as it reassesses the economy. If we see another rate hike or two, it probably won’t take place until later this year.

Consumer debt will increase because it’s now more expensive to borrow money.

Demand for rentals will remain strong because homeownership has gotten more expensive.

Return to Normal Gains

We’ve been so spoiled over the last 10 years by double-digit gains. Investors need to start expecting more normal returns. Syndications will go back to 6% preferred returns, with an equity kicker on the back end that would bring the IRR to just over 10%. Unless you find that home run — like our development in Costa Rica, where we got the land cheap and received entitlements quickly such that we were able to get our glamping resort up and running, effectively lowering holding costs. We are expecting investors to receive an 18% return on that one. But these types of deals will be fewer and further between.

 

If you’re expecting another 2008 housing meltdown where you can pick up properties for pennies on the dollar, you may be waiting a long time.

There is No “One” Housing Market

We also have to remember that the national housing market isn’t just “one” housing market. Instead, it’s made up of thousands of diverse housing markets. The key to higher returns is finding emerging markets — those with job and population growth, but with real estate values still below their peak. These types of areas give investors both cash flow today and a strong chance of appreciation in the future — a win/win, whether a recession is coming or not.

What happens when we do get hit by another housing recession?

We have to remember, today’s housing scenario is very different than in 2008. Back then, loan underwriting was loose. Today, it’s still very tight. This time, most homeowners have equity in their home. Back then, they did not. Today, homeowners are locked into historically low interest rates. It would be much more expensive to sell or to rent, so they will hold onto their homes. Plus, Airbnb wasn’t prominent in 2008. Today, people can rent out rooms in order to make house payments.  That brings me to my 7th and final prediction:

The housing market will remain on solid ground although price growth will be slower.

The recent slide in mortgage rates is corresponding to more activity from home buyers. That’s an indication that by keeping interest rates about where they are now, the housing market will thrive. We may see some turmoil at the high end of the housing market due to things like the tax law and stock market gyrations, but the housing market as a whole will likely see growth in more affordable markets.

The trick is to find the right markets. Real estate investors want to be in growth markets. And there are several good markets where that makes sense. The Real Wealth Network has identified 15 markets that can provide a good return on your investment. Some are better for appreciation. Others are better for cash flow. We have more information about those markets at our website www.realwealthnetwork.com

 

Kathy Fettke

Kathy Fettke is Co-CEO of Real Wealth Network and best selling author of Retire Rich with Rentals. She is an active real estate investor, licensed real estate agent, and former mortgage broker, specializing in helping people build multi-million dollar real estate portfolios that generate passive monthly cash flow for life.

With a passion for researching real estate market cycles, Kathy is a frequent guest expert on CNN, CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, NPR, CBS MarketWatch and the Wall Street Journal. She was also named among the “Top 100 Most Intriguing Entrepreneurs” by Goldman Sachs two years in a row.

Kathy hosts two podcasts, The Real Wealth Show and Real Estate News for Investors — both top ten podcasts on iTunes with listeners in 27 different countries. Her company, Real Wealth Network, offers free resources and cutting edge education for beginning and experienced real estate investors. Kathy is passionate about teaching others how to create “real wealth,” which she defines as having both the time and the money to live life on your terms.